analyze-future-scenarios

analyze-future-scenarios

Purpose

Construct and compare plausible future/competitive/temporal/stress scenarios and test whether the research path remains robust across them.

Input contract

required: [research_path, scenario_axes, uncertainty_drivers]
optional: [assumptions, prior_findings, evidence_updates]
constraints: [consume named scientific objects; preserve provenance; keep unresolved uncertainty visible]

Execution protocol

Do not perform called SOP operations inline; each loaded SOP owns its contract and thresholds.

1. You MUST load skill identify-scenario-drivers to rank the horizon's high-impact uncertainties.
2. You MUST load skill enumerate-dimension-values to enumerate representative, boundary, and adversarial driver values.
3. You MUST load skill evaluate-compatibility to prune incompatible combinations while retaining near-boundary cases.
4. You MUST load skill construct-scenario to assemble distinct baseline, counterfactual, and extreme-but-plausible worlds.
5. You MUST load skill evaluate-scenario-impact to score the research path inside each fixed world and record failure triggers.
6. You MUST load skill evaluate-scenario-robustness to aggregate per-world results and expose fragile assumptions.
7. You MUST load skill predict-competitive-move to forecast credible competitor moves and preemption risk.
8. You MUST load skill analyze-temporal-trajectory to order outcomes through time and reveal regime changes.

Deviation: reorder only when a dependency is already satisfied or unavailable; record the reason and confidence effect.

Output contract

produces: [scenario_set, impact_comparison, robustness_assessment]
delta_fields: [findings, decisions]

Thresholds and quality gates

• Each output is traceable to an input object, operation, and evidence reference.
• Scope, assumptions, and unresolved alternatives remain explicit.
• Retain $\alpha$ 0.05 and power 0.8 wherever the predeclared statistical design requires them.

Failure and counterexamples

Stop synthesis when a required object is absent, a precondition is violated, or a counterexample invalidates the proposed conclusion; return the partial delta with the failure recorded.

Provenance map

• intermediate: experiment-execution/scenario-planning [campaign]
• resolved: morphological-scenario
• resolved: narrative-scenario
• resolved: stress-scenario
• resolved: competitive-scenario
• resolved: temporal-scenario
• resolved: parameter-space-construction
• resolved: cross-consistency-filtering
• resolved: strategy-robustness-testing

Preserved source criteria ledger

source	criterion	treatment
resolved v3 entries above	node-specific criteria	retained and specialized to the v4 object contract
experiment-execution/statistical-testing	$\alpha$ = 0.05	fixed value retained where applicable
experiment-execution/sample-size-estimation	power = 0.8	fixed value retained where applicable

Context checkpoint / Delta notes

Return the node-specific research-state delta and preserve findings, evidence updates, uncertainties, decisions, open questions, and recommended jumps as applicable.