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arthur-hayes-liquidity

Use when evaluating crypto markets through an Arthur Hayes-style liquidity lens: dollar liquidity, funding, risk appetite, cycle psychology, and macro-driven crypto positioning.

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1,906
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Marketing & business
License
MIT
Last commit
Aug 23, 2026

skills/arthur-hayes-liquidity/SKILL.md

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Arthur Hayes Liquidity

Use this skill to apply Arthur Hayes-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

  • crypto macro regime
  • liquidity-driven BTC/ETH risk appetite
  • funding/leverage cycle
  • Hayes-style crypto essay thesis

Trigger phrases include Arthur Hayes, CryptoHayes, dollar liquidity, crypto funding, risk-on crypto, BitMEX.

Do Not Use When

  • Another skill fits better.
  • Critical data for this model is missing.
  • The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
  • The request is generic hype with no decision.

Inputs Needed

  • Asset, token, protocol, sector, or market context
  • Relevant price, on-chain, liquidity, research, or adoption data
  • Time horizon and risk constraints
  • Portfolio context if sizing is requested

Process

  1. Map dollar liquidity and policy backdrop.
  2. Check crypto leverage/funding and risk appetite.
  3. Decide risk-on, neutral, or risk-off posture.
  4. Express via BTC/ETH/beta with explicit invalidation.

Output Format

# Arthur Hayes Liquidity View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Risk-On / Neutral / Risk-Off / Probe / Reduce

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

  • Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
  • Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
  • Define invalidation before sizing.
  • Not financial advice.

Questflow Use

Use as a crypto judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.

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