pm-constraint-arbitrage

Check whether prices of related prediction-market contracts violate a probability bound after venue fees, using the oracle3 MCP server or Python API. Paper trading only.

Star: 566
Category: Marketing & business
License: Apache-2.0
Last commit: Oct 12, 2026

Install

Send the text below to Claude Code, Codex or Cursor. The agent reviews the Skill’s contents and installs it after you confirm.

读取 https://funcoding.ai/skills/yichengyang-ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent/pm-constraint-arbitrage/install.md ，按里面的步骤帮我安装这个 Skill。

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Source repository

YichengYang-Ethan/oracle3-prediction-market-agent

Oracle3: open-source trading engine and MCP server for prediction markets. Finds fee-adjusted no-arbitrage violations across related event contracts and trades them live on Kalshi, Polymarket and Solana, or on paper, under pre-trade risk limits. 13 MCP tools, JSON CLI, agent skills, 600+ tests.

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skills/pm-constraint-arbitrage/SKILL.md

PM Constraint Arbitrage

Use this skill when the user asks whether related markets are mispriced relative to each other, for example "does P(A) exceed P(B) even though A implies B?", or whether a cross-venue price gap survives fees.

Tools

MCP server (pip install oracle3, then run oracle3-mcp):

search_markets, get_quote, get_orderbook to find markets and read executable prices.
check_constraint_live to fetch quotes and fee schedules and evaluate a relation.
check_constraint to evaluate a relation on quotes you supply.
trading_fee to price a single fill under a venue's schedule.
paper_order, paper_portfolio to paper-trade the legs.

Python API: oracle3.arbitrage.check_constraint and oracle3.fees.

Relations

Relation	Bound	Quotes, in order
implication	P(A) <= P(B) when A implies B	A, B
exclusivity	probabilities sum to at most 1	every outcome
complement	P(A) + P(B) = 1	A, B
same_event	P(A) = P(B), one event on two venues	A, B
event_sum	probabilities sum to exactly 1	every outcome

Steps

Find the markets with search_markets and read both markets' resolution rules with get_market.
Decide which relation holds. This is a judgment about the contract wording, not something the tool can verify.
Run check_constraint_live with the relation and the markets in the order above.
Read best.gross_edge_per_contract (edge before fees), best.fees_per_contract and best.net_edge_per_contract.
Only if the net edge is positive and the book is deep enough, paper-trade each leg with paper_order at a limit no worse than the quoted ask.

Hard rules

Never place real orders from this skill; the MCP server cannot, and the CLI live mode is out of scope.
State the relation you assumed and why; a wrong relation turns an "arbitrage" into a directional bet.
Report fees per leg. Kalshi taker fees are 0.07·M·C·P·(1−P); Polymarket taker fees are rate·C·p·(1−p) with a per-market rate; Polymarket makers pay nothing.
The check assumes every leg fills at the quoted price. Say so when the displayed size is smaller than the order.

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