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dengxiaofeng-cycle-industry

Use when evaluating stocks through Deng Xiaofeng's cycle-and-industry lens: deep industry research, cycle position awareness, supply-demand dynamics, and buying leaders at cycle bottoms.

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1,906
Category
Marketing & business
License
MIT
Last commit
Aug 23, 2026

skills/dengxiaofeng-cycle-industry/SKILL.md

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Deng Xiaofeng Cycle Industry

Use this skill to apply Deng Xiaofeng / 邓晓峰-style judgment.

When To Use

Use this skill when the user asks for:

  • cycle industry analysis
  • whether an industry is at cycle bottom or top
  • deep industry research thesis
  • Deng Xiaofeng-style value with cycle awareness

Trigger phrases include 邓晓峰, Deng Xiaofeng, cycle industry, 行业周期, supply demand cycle, 周期底部.

Do Not Use When

  • Another skill fits better.
  • Critical data for this model is missing.
  • The user wants guaranteed returns or unbounded leverage.
  • The request is generic chatter with no decision.

Inputs Needed

  • Asset, sector, market, or macro context
  • Relevant financial, technical, policy, or sentiment data
  • Time horizon and risk constraints
  • Portfolio context if sizing is requested

Process

  1. Map the industry cycle: bottom, recovery, peak, downturn.
  2. Analyze supply-demand dynamics and capacity additions.
  3. Identify the industry leader with cost/scale advantage.
  4. Buy at cycle bottom when price reflects pessimism; reduce at cycle top.

Output Format

# Deng Xiaofeng Cycle Industry View: [Subject]

## Verdict
Buy Cycle Bottom / Watch / Cycle Still Falling / At Cycle Top / Pass

## Thesis

## Evidence

## Risks

## Action Plan

## Invalidation

## Missing Data

Guardrails

  • Follow the skill process; do not free-style.
  • Separate facts, assumptions, and judgment.
  • Define invalidation before sizing.
  • Not financial advice.

Questflow Use

Use as a judgment module inside Questflow-style agent workflows. Reference readings/podcasts/videos after loading the skill.

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